Commentary: Crash that killed President Raisi will further roil Iran’s domestic politics

People gather to mourn for the death of the late Iran 's President Ebrahim Raisi, in Tehran, Iran May 20, 2024. The helicopter crash, reportedly due to a “technical failure”, killed all eight aboard, including several other senior officials.The most pressing one is electing a replacement for Mr Raisi. Iran ’s First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber is serving as Raisi’s replacement for now, while Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani has been named acting Foreign Minister.

Rescue team works following a crash of a helicopter carrying Iran's President Ebrahim Raisi, in Varzaqan, East Azerbaijan Province, Iran, May 20, 2024. Stringer/WANA via REUTERSIn parliamentary elections held earlier this year, Iranians voted with their feet, literally. Only about 25 million of the country’s 61 million eligible voters bothered to go to the polls, the lowest electoral turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history.

That is not the only dark cloud on the horizon. Iran’s President is nominally the second-most powerful person in the country, but much of what he does comes at the direction of the Supreme Leader. Elevating the son of the current Supreme Leader would not be a good look for the regime, raising further questions about its legitimacy. In fact, several top clerics have gone on record to say that the Supreme Leader himself has expressed opposition to his son’s candidacy for the role.

But the alternative is not much better: A power struggle between various factions who will jockey to get their man in office, the net effect of which would be the installation of a leader via a process that excludes the Iranian people, again.

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