PAGASA also warned that moderate to rough seas, with waves 1.2 to 3.1 meters high, will be experienced in the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon in the next 24 hours. Small vessels are advised not to set sail.
Based on Carina's latest forecast track, PAGASA said it could just pass close to the northeastern part of Cagayan and the Babuyan Islands between Monday night and Tuesday morning, July 14. "However, accounting for the forecast track probability cone, a landfall scenario over these areas remains likely," added the state weather bureau.An average of 20 tropical cyclones form within or enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility each year. Only around half of these make landfall.
In PAGASA's climate outlook, it gave the following estimates for the number of tropical cyclones inside PAR in the next 6 months:
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