ANALYSIS: How supplementary elections in six states will be fought and won

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Here, we project how the supplementary election battle in each of the states will be fought and won. Four states appear determined already.

After the March 9 governorship elections across the country, the polls in six states – Adamawa, Bauchi, Benue, Kano, Plateau and Sokoto – were declared inconclusive.

In order to upstage Mr Fintiri, the APC candidate will require a miracle on the same level as squeezing water out of a rock. What is more, the percentage of voters’ turnout in last Saturday’s election in the state was less than 50 per cent. After the collation of 19 local governments out of the 20 in the state, the APC is trailing the opposition Peoples Democratic Party and its candidate, Bala Muhammed, with 4,059 votes. The APC scored a total of 465,453 votes against the PDP’s 469,512 votes.

However, the election was cancelled or could not be held in polling units with a total of 121,019 registered voters. Thus, in line with INEC’s guideline, the election was declared inconclusive because the margin of lead between the APC and PDP was less than the number of cancelled votes. However, the number of cancelled votes in the state is 128,572 votes, which leaves the rerun wide open for any of the candidates. Another testament to why the supplementary election in the state can swing either way, is that 128,572 cancelled voters are spread across half of the 44 local governments of the state.

 

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