World economy watches and waits for China’s great reboot

Workers make optical lenses in a factory in China’s Jiangxi province on Feb 23.

While still fighting a health emergency, President Xi Jinping’s government now also must decide how much to spend and on what, mindful of the risks long posed by a large debt burden and the declining usefulness of yet more new roads and railways. “The government has not brought out the big stimulus guns, because they want to wait to see the extent to which activity can recover on its own,” said Andy Rothman, a former US diplomat in Beijing who’s now an investment strategist at Matthews Asia.

Yet anecdotal reports from across China’s vast east-coast manufacturing heartland suggest much of the nation’s industrial capacity remains idle or is running at less than full capacity. Ben Cowling, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at Hong Kong University, warns of a possible second wave in China as business resume and people come back to work and mingle with one another.“In other cities in China the total number of cases has been very low, and they are still vulnerable to an epidemic,” Cowling said.

Source: Financial Digest (financialdigest.net)

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