Neither the South Korean or U.S. militaries have confirmed what this year's annual drills may entail, but a recent series of unusual displays of military might in and around the Korean peninsula suggest a more muscular show could be in the works, analysts said.
South Korea conducted rare missile drills and an unprecedented F-35A fighter jet display in explicit response to North Korea’s latest ICBM test, warning Pyongyang it has the willingness and capability to respond and “punish” the North if necessary. It is a stark contrast with recent years when the two allies played down their military exercises, holding computer-based training, scaling down field exercises, avoiding major weapons and not publicising some of the drills, at least partly as they sought to placate Pyongyang and restart stalled denuclearisation talks.
The exercises will likely return to a more normal pre-COVID tempo amid eased pandemic restrictions and diminished political benefit to cancelling or limiting the drills given the diplomatic deadlock with North Korea, said Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-based lecturer for Alabama's Troy University. "Suspending these costly and highly provocative military exercises will be a crucial step toward restarting genuine diplomacy with North Korea," the groups said in a statement they plan to send to U.S. and South Korean leaders.