The headquarters of the European Central Bank seen in Frankfurt, Germany July 8, 2020. — Reuters pic
“We're getting to the third phase of the crisis response,” Commerzbank head of rates and credit research Christoph Rieger, said. “The first phase saw the ECB in denial, the second phase was a 'whatever it takes' moment. The third phase is about reflection.”ECB chief economist Philip Lane recently suggested the bank is on hold after delivering stimulus three times this year.
As the economy stabilises, some ECB board members have suggested the entire Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme “envelope” — recently boosted to €1.35 trillion — might not be spent. The Italian/German 10-year bond-yield gap narrowed sharply after June's aggressive action, stabilising around 170 bps .The ECB expects the economy to shrink by 8.7 per cent in 2020 before growing 5.2 per cent in 2021, and Lagarde reckons the worst is “probably past.”
Launched six yeas ago, targeted-longer term refinancing operations were redesigned this year, allowing banks cash at rates as low as minus 1 per cent.
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