Morgan Stanley has raised its long-term LNG price outlook to US$10 per million British thermal units , expecting spot prices of the super-chilled fuel to average 40% higher over the next decade, versus the past five years.
Morgan Stanley said at least 73 million tonnes per annum of new projects are needed to meet LNG demand by 2030. This will require an additional US$65 billion of new projects, on top of the US$200 billion of projects already under construction which were sanctioned since 2019. "Competing technologies for natural gas are not being developed fast enough, and there are significant benefits in reducing coal consumption while greener fuels are commercialised." Projects with lower emission intensity will be more sought after and are more likely to progress, they said.
"This will be driven by uncertainty over medium-term demand along with more capital discipline from the industry, including diversification into greener energies," they said.
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