Lifting of social distancing measures could cause second wave of Covid-19

According to the new study, the province of Ontario would have had five times as many deaths without the social-distancing measures imposed in mid-March.

They predict that a radical lifting of these precautionary measures in the province, without parallel screening tests or other compensatory measures, could saturate hospital services within a month.But to what extent is it possible to reopen parks and restaurants and return to normal life without risking a second wave of contagion? Canadian researchers have analysed the different possible scenarios.

The prediction, developed by Population Medicine Professor Amy Greer at the University of Guelph and researchers at the University of Toronto, Canada, is based on a mathematical model created in the early spring, which took into account the number of Covid-19-infected patients in intensive care in Ontario between March 19 and May 3, and the death rate among these patients.

The research team also examined the time it would take to exceed the available number of intensive care unit beds in the province if social distancing was relaxed without any other compensatory measures. Assuming that social distancing reduced contact in Ontario by 70%, the study predicts that hospitals would be overwhelmed in just 35 days without it.

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