IMF lowers 2023 global growth forecast to 2.8%

WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund slightly lowered its outlook for the global economy today, while predicting that most countries will avoid a recession this year despite economic and geopolitical concerns.

“The global economy is recovering from the shocks of the last few years, and particularly of course the pandemic, but also the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said in a press briefing ahead of the release of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report. Close to 90% of advanced economies will experience slowing growth this year, while Asia’s emerging markets are expected to see a substantial rise in economic output — with India and China predicted to account for half of all growth, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said last week.

This figure remains significantly above the 2% target set by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world, suggesting monetary policymakers have a long way to go before inflation is brought back under control. Alongside growth in the US, the Euro area is also forecast to grow by 0.8% this year, and 1.4% next year, led by Spain, which will see 1.5% growth in 2023 and 2% growth in 2024.

India’s economic forecast has been downgraded from the previous forecast in January, but it is still predicted to grow by 5.9% this year and 6.3% in 2024, providing some much-needed stimulus to the global economy.

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