Fuel subsidy rollback to boost region-beating Malaysian bonds

The 2024 budget announcement on Oct 13 will reveal a concrete move away from the blanket petrol subsidy system, says economy minister Rafizi Ramli.

Bonds of the oil-exporting nation returned a relatively small loss of 0.7% in the three months through September amid a torrid period for global debt markets. In comparison, their counterparts in Indonesia slid 3.6%, while in Thailand they tumbled 5.7%. The decision may generate savings of at least US$1 billion to US$2 billion a year, he said.Net bond supply is expected to be RM86 billion in 2024, versus a forecast RM91 billion this year, said Winson Phoon, head of fixed-income research at Maybank Securities Pte in Singapore.

For every US$10 a barrel increase in the price of oil, the government receives an estimated RM8 billion in revenue, while having to spend around RM6 billion in its blanket fuel subsidies, according to a note from Maybank this week.A reduction in bond supply would be good news as demand at recent auctions has been faltering. The average bid-to-cover ratio at the sales of five-year Islamic notes and 30-year conventional bonds last month was a combined 1.93 times, versus the 2023 average of 2.11.

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