This file photo taken on September 24, 2020 shows a staff member checking vaccines during a media tour of a new factory built to produce a Covid-19 coronavirus vaccine at Sinovac in Beijing.
But if the Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines — and perhaps others made in China, Russia and India — shield poorly against infection, then even people who have rolled up their sleeves to be injected remain potential, unwitting carriers. Several such variants — more contagious, more deadly or both — have already proliferated in England, South Africa and Brazil as the SARS-CoV-2 virus finds it harder to find new hosts, a predictable phase in the evolution of a pandemic. Research covering the entire Scottish population of 5.4 million — a fifth innoculated with the Pfizer or Oxford/AstraZeneca jabs — provides real-world validation that the vaccines prevent Covid symptoms and illness more than 90 per cent of the time.
“They are likely to have failed to detect some asymptomatic cases, and we know that people without symptoms can still transmit the infection,” said English.“These findings give us hope that vaccination alone may get the R number below 1,” English said, referring to the threshold above which a virus continues to spread.
One reason, said Lipsitch, is that when the pandemic began its devastating march across the globe last Spring this was not a priority. “Trying to work out how many people are asymptomatic but potentially infectious is difficult,” said English.On top of that, even the best measures of infection — so-called PCR tests — are only about 70 per cent sensitive outside laboratory conditions, he added.
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