A motorcyclist rides across an almost empty bridge in Wuhan during the lockdown in January.
By day 50 of the epidemic – Feb 19 – there were 30,000 confirmed cases in China, said Oxford fellow Christopher Dye, one of the paper’s authors. The researchers used a combination of case reports, public health information and mobile phone location tracking to investigate the spread of the virus. The Wuhan shutdown delayed the arrival of the virus in other cities, their model showed, giving them time to prepare by banning public gatherings and closing entertainment venues, among other measures.
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