A new phase of economic growth for Malaysia but uncertainties remain — Paolo Casadio and Geoffrey Williams

Honey in the Rock brings dry oxtail 'laksa', fried chicken and artisanal ice cream to PJ's Damansara Kim

The forecasts for 4-5% growth in 2023 proved over-optimistic. The revised growth for last year at 3.6% was not even close to the potential of 4.5%. We had anticipated this in our previous article in mid-February, “The Big Surprise: Malaysia not back to normal.” In the last three quarters of the year GDP growth was flat at around 3% year-on-year.

The green line shows the average annual change in final demand in normal times during the pre-covid period and can be considered as the potential growth rate. The red line shows the contraction in final demand based on the old data and the blue line shows the contraction based on the revised data. A good measure to look at is the ratio of fixed investment to gross domestic product . The latest Q1 2024 data show a consistent jump in this ratio, both at the aggregate level and when considering the components, especially machinery and equipment. This can be seen in private investment as well as total investment.

Second, the positive macroeconomic environment has delivered price stability and financial stability through joint efforts from the government and BNM which have provided moderate inflation, stable and low interest rates and a consistent flow of credit to the economy.Source: Author calculations using seasonally adjusted data at constant prices from DOSM

Phase Of Economic Growth For Malaysia But Uncertainties Remain Paolo Casadio And Geoffrey Williams

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