80/20: How reality shifts when we focus away from the average | Malay Mail

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OCTOBER 19 — The average doesn’t tell us much. If on Monday you ate one nasi lemak for breakfast, lunch and dinner (which makes three nasi lemaks in one day), your average nasi lemak per meal is one.  But if on Tuesday you skipped breakfast and lunch and...

OCTOBER 19 — The average doesn’t tell us much. per meal is one. s for dinner, your average is the same To equate the dietary outcomes for both Monday and Tuesday simply because their averages are the same would be a mistake. Likewise your lifestyle will be very different if, after earning about RM5,000 per month for many years, you suddenly earn RM60,000 in one month with no assurance you’ll get anything more for the next 11.

In the stock-market, most people try to get small to moderate “average monthly returns” from their stock picks. But traders like Nassim Nicholas Taleb, at least in the past, focused on waiting and waiting and waiting, even accepting small losses over many months, until — wham! — one huge crisis comes and he wins big while the “average” stock market player loses almost everything.

this virus does NOT follow some steady straight-line path of progress . Instead it grows in unpredictable jumps and spurts. of spreaders. This is most obvious in the case of “Patient 31” from South Korea who was the starting point of more than 5,000 cases in a megachurch cluster back in March. Likewise, as everybody knows, the Sabah clusters have ramped up our daily national average; and why our government didn’t close off the airports much earlier is anybody’s guess.

 

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