It is too early in the year to predict the likely outcome for the exchequer finances this year, or what this might mean for the budget in October. But some trends are clear after. Spending continues to rise rapidly and is ahead of budget – it is difficult to see this coming back fully into line. Meanwhile,; income tax is running 7 per cent ahead of last year and the Department of Finance says that early weakness in corporation tax is due to “timing factors” relating to payments.
It is worth noting that a significant rise in spending is already planned into the figures for 2025. There will also be welfare changes to account for inflation. Meanwhile, it is also appropriate to adjust tax bands and credits to ensure that the proportion paid in tax does not go up as wages rise.
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