Sir, – The Government has announced that its current prediction is that Ireland will receive 16,000 asylum applications annually over the coming years . What this is based on is not clear. Just a few years ago, its prediction was for less than a quarter of this number.
Development economists, who study migration patterns, use a simple function to estimate whether migration is likely to increase, decrease or stay the same. All else remaining equal, in the presence of a significant income gap between country A and country B, migration will accelerate, until the income gap is significantly closed. The reason for this is the diaspora effect.
Politicians who cite “global instability” as the reason for our current influx of asylum seekers should consider whether the world really is more unstable now, than during say, the 2015 Syrian civil war. That year, very few Syrians sought asylum in Ireland. The reason? The absence of any significant Syrian diaspora in Ireland at that time.
Any modelling for future asylum seeker numbers should therefore expect a steady increase year on year and plan accordingly. – Yours, etc,My friend Amy Winehouse: ‘It makes me sad that she died alone in that big house in Camden’Shane Lowry rues Masters miss, but round with Phil the Thrill a day to rememberLATEST STORIESGo wild with this easy green soup that’s perfect for spring
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