What we won't see in this week's jobs data - Macleans.ca

Space available on storefronts is shown on Queen Street in Toronto on Thursday, April 16, 2020. Canada and the U.S. release their official jobs reports on June 5, telling us what happened to jobs by mid-May. If these jobs reports are anything like last months’ reports, they will provide deep insight into what happened during the lockdown period, and continue to confirm what we all see around us: there has been a dramatic shock to the Canadian and U.S. labour markets and economies.

But by the pace of the COVID crisis, these data are now ancient history. What matters now is what has happened since the early stages of reopening began later in May and what will happen as businesses assess true consumer demand in the days ahead.

This is just one of the limitations of the official jobs data during COVID, but it is one that we can fix. To make effective and agile policies in the next phases of managing the COVID crisis, here are some adjustments we should make in our thinking about the headline jobs report:. Employment is usually a lagging economic indicator. But in this crisis, real-time jobs data may actually provide a leading indication of how quickly or slowly economic activity is coming back on stream.

As the economy reopens, do Canadians feel safe going out to a restaurant or to a crowded elevator in their workplace? Will parents feel comfortable sending their kids to school and camps if and when they reopen? Will Canadians hesitate to spend if they believe this crisis will be deeper and longer-lasting than the conditions suggest? Behavioural fear is the X-factor in this crisis.

When we go beyond what we’re likely to see in this week’s headline jobs numbers to monitor a fuller set of economic but also psychological impacts in real-time, we see some very small, early steps towards part-time work becoming full-time but still a growing share of those who want jobs without them and a significant share who have lost a substantial part of their livelihoods.

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