There was plenty of fresh data to analyze this week as we stand only six weeks away from the 43rd federal general election, so let’s recap the past week of polling:
Here are the popular vote projections with 95 per cent confidence intervals compared to last week’s national polls:The Conservatives and Liberals remain essentially tied on top of voting intentions with 34 per cent apiece. As we will see below, due to the high concentration of Conservative support in Alberta and Saskatchewan, a tied national vote gives a slight edge to the Liberals seat-wise.
Over the course of 250,000 general election simulations, the Liberal Party wins an average of 165 seats, five seats short of a majority, and 24 seats above the Conservative average of 141 seats. The Liberals are projected leading in 63 districts that are labelled either “leaning” or “toss up”, by far more than any other party. In Quebec, a modest two-to-three point swing to the Bloc or the Conservatives could flip several rural seats in the province. In Ontario, among the 30 GTA districts, more than half are projected leaning or toss ups, including several with the Liberals as current favourites.
How many ridings might flip from party to another?
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