Toronto's stock market will nudge higher over the rest of the year, but investors will need to wait until the second half of 2020 for the index to better April's record peak as global trade tensions weigh on company earnings, a Reuters poll found.
"It looks like we have moved into a common seasonal soft patch that could run through to October depending on how long it takes to get U.S.-China trade talks and Brexit sorted out," said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management."The longer uncertainty drags, the more of a negative impact tensions could have on stocks.
"Earnings expectations still remain too high, and estimate revisions have started to move lower in the past several weeks, which should put further pressure on index returns," said Mike Archibald, associate portfolio manager at AGF Investments. Chances of a recession in Canada, where household debt loads are at record levels, in 12 months were 20 per cent, rising to 27.5 per cent in the next two years, a Reuters poll taken in April found. ECILT/CAThe Bank of Canada lowered in April its 2019 growth forecast for Canada to 1.2 per cent and abandoned language pointing to further interest rate hikes. Economists see a 40-per-cent chance the central bank will cut rates by the end of 2020, a Reuters poll showed last Friday.
Source: News Formal (newsformal.com)
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