The Bank of Canada is done raising interest rates until at least the end of next year, with a serious risk of a cut by then as policymakers become more wary of slowing growth and global trade tensions, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
While median forecasts show rates unchanged from here on, forecasters were split in three directions starting from the fourth quarter of this year. By end-2020, about two-thirds who provided a view said rates would be either unchanged or lower. Asked about the probability of a cut by the end of this year, the median from a smaller sample of economists in the Reuters poll put it at 23 per cent. But that rose to 40 per cent by the end of 2020, with nearly a third predicting more than 50 per cent chance of a cut by then.One major concern is the U.S.-China trade war, which has heated up over the past month. A Reuters poll taken earlier in May found the risk of recession in the U.S., Canada’s largest trading partner, had risen this month.
“The Canadian economy faces tail risks, but its labour market is historically tight and the Bank of Canada’s policy rate sits below trend real GDP growth,” said William Adams, senior economist at PNC Financial Services.
This is what happens when you elect too many nincompoops.
ITS_LIISA_ does not sound like a vibrant economy
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