The most remarkable recent trend in Canadian politics has been the rise of the Greens. Since the last election, the party had been locked in at its usual six per cent in the polls, give or take a half a percentage point — until this year, when it suddenly began to take off. Recent polls put it at 11 or 12 points, within spitting distance of the NDP.
The same trend is observable elsewhere, as climate change increasingly displaces the old politics of class and even the new politics of identity as the driving issue on the left. The Greens were among the major winners in the recent European Union elections — with 69 seats, they are now the fourth-largest bloc in the European Parliament — while candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination compete to outdo each other with the radicalism of their environmental plans.
To achieve this, it calls for the creation of an all-party “war cabinet,” which would impose such measures as a ban on fracking, an end to foreign oil imports, and the replacement of all internal-combustion vehicles with electric by 2040. But the NDP thinks its proposals will be enough, in the space of a decade, to cut emissions by another 22 percentage points beyond that, while the Greens claim the ability to cut them by another 22 percentage points beyond what the NDP can achieve. Whether this can be done at all may be fairly doubted; whether it can be done at an acceptable cost to the economy even more so. But for voters in the NDP-Green universe, this is now what is required.
Should the Liberals be tempted to move further left, however, they risk ceding that middle ground to the Conservatives. Until lately that would have seemed unlikely. The Conservatives have not only opposed carbon pricing, but have resolutely refused to offer any emissions reduction plan of their own.
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