When it comes to migration, we must separate fact from fiction – and be sceptical of political tough talk

s Australia’s 2024 budget debate rages, the issue of migration has become a hot topic. The government plans to reduce net overseas migration to 260,000 next year, a target which is achievable and likely inevitable due to the natural ebb and flow of migration patterns, amplified during the pandemic.

But permanent migration is only a small part of the story. Most immigrants arrive in Australia on temporary visas and a small portion of these then later apply for one of the 160,000 annual permanent places. About 60% of permanent visas go to people already in the country on temporary visas. So reducing net overseas migration is really about reducing temporary migration – the largest component of which is the international student intake.

However, if either party does try to rein in temporary migration by reducing international student numbers, there are major implications for Australia’s economy and society. Export education, as it is called, is one of Australia’s largest industries. Throttling it will undoubtedly be amust change their business models. Research, which is vital to succeeding in a global knowledge economy and is now subsidised by international student fees, will suffer.

At the heart of voter concern lies Australia’s housing crisis, often incorrectly attributed to migration. It’s important to differentiate the housing crisis from a rental crisis. Currently, two-thirds of Australian households own their homes and benefit from rising property values. However, for renters, the, the root cause of high house prices is not the current short-term surge in migration but a shortfall in housing supply, made worse by the pandemic.

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