In 2004, former Australian diplomat in Moscow Bobo Lo met Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time. It was just three days after Russia’s biggest tragedy in peacetime – the horrific
The months-long build-up of Russian troops at the Ukrainian border was not a bluff, after all, but the full-scale pincer– hitting not just the east and the south where Russia has been seizing territory since 2014, but the north too. Putin, who remembers the Soviet Union’s collapse in 1991 as a “catastrophe”, wants to restore Russia’s standing as a world power, extendingto keep a buffer between Russia and the West. He questions why NATO, which formed after World War II to contain the USSR, has continued to expand since the Soviet Union broke apart. In 2008, he warned that talk of Ukraine and Georgia joining NATO was a “red line”, and later sent troops into both countries to seize territory.
When Putin announced the attack, Pavlyshyn recalls the fear that gripped him in Australia for his parents’ homeland. “But in a way I’d been caught up in the mythology too, of the Russian conventional war machine as enormous, extremely well-led, practically invincible, after such successful campaigns in Georgia and Syria. That’s now unravelling before our eyes.” He points to widespread accounts of soldiers stranded without fuel or food, or surrendering.
Pavlyshyn no longer thinks Ukraine’s military can be defeated quickly but agrees that Putin will not pull back without a win, and Zelensky will not cede Ukrainian territory. “Unless there is a kind of palace revolt [against Putin] which seems unlikely, then the only thing is to offer him some kind of way out which can be spun, not as a military defeat but [as] the achievement of peace in our time or whatever.
the alliance could come to its defence. And many suspect Putin also has ambitions beyond just Ukraine. Moldova and Georgia are not part of NATO either and have both already had parts of their territory seized by Russian-backed separatists. Kremlin ally Belarus stoked fears further this month when it displayed a battle map showing an arrow pointing to Moldova.
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