Still, the “critical risk factor” is if any central bank gets behind the game. “We know where it all ends, and that’s much higher interest rates and a guaranteed deep, damaging recession,” Hogan said.
“It’s the state governments that are irresponsible,” he said. “They have no political cost to pay for this economic situation”, including pushing up wages and costs.The economy entered 2023 after a “really strong” December quarter in terms of household spending, with a pickup in wages in the second half of 2022, Rynne said.
Markets, such as interest-rate curves, suggest the US will go into recession, and the global economy is “going to be very soft”. “I actually do think prices are going to come off faster” than many expect, he said. Still, Australia is “operating beyond full employment” and that means wages will remain “an area of heightened concern” for the RBA.
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