, for example, visited a care home in Antwerp in December 2020, and infected 40 staff members and more than 100 residents.who caused a superspreading event resulting in more than 5,000 cases in the South Korean city of Daegu., we have seen many examples of cases being detected, but not infecting a single other person.The effective reproduction number Reff, also called Re or R, tells us, on average, how many people an infected person will pass it on to.
This way, we end up with a much smoother series of numbers without all the up and down jags, that allows us to see trends much more easily. Importantly, I also use the moving average to calculate the Reff.We measure the amount of variability in the daily case numbers by a statistic called the variance. This measures how far apart the daily counts are from their average value of 10.7. For most count data , the average and variance are the same. So, if the average count is 10.
In the above diagram, the number of people a case infects is shown in each circle. The original maroon case infects two others . Each of these secondary cases infects three or four others , and so the outbreak continues. Typically, most infected people, infect at least one other person.
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