What a change of leadership in Iran means for the world order

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The now dead Iranian president and foreign minister did everything they could to consolidate the “Axis of Resistance”. There is a decision to be made.

In their three years in power, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and his equally hard-line foreign minister, Hossein Amirabdollahian, did everything they could to consolidate the “Axis of Resistance” against the United States and Israel.

The question now is whether their successors – almost certain to be from the same hard-line camp, US officials suspect – will show similar caution. And whether, in the cauldron of internal Iranian power plays, and an all-consuming presidential election in the United States, it will even be possible to keep up the sliver of communications between Washington and Tehran.

As one US official noted recently, in the eyes of the supreme leader, that approach may appear to be working: Iran has forged a new relationship with Russia as a critical supplier of drones and missiles, and its attack on Israel demonstrated a new ability to “swarm” weapons – even if most of Iran’s drones and missiles were taken out by air defences.A decade ago, it was possible to imagine a very different future for the United States and Iran.

Big European banks and other financial institutions did not want to take the enormous financial risk of reentering business agreements that could later run afoul of new sanctions, especially if relations with the West soured again.That is exactly what happened. Then-US president Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018, and eventually so did the Iranians.

 

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