such predictions of war in the next few years “are generated largely by a military-security establishment that sees Beijing as an inevitable next opponent and a useful tool for its own budgetary ambitions”.was among those defending the memo, saying it offered an important point outside its rhetoric: that the US is not ready for conflict and people should be more worried about it.
The US is a longstanding integral party to cross-strait tensions as a global military power and as a legally bound supporter of Taiwan’s defensive capability. Its cross-strait policy remains underpinned by a doctrine of strategic ambiguity – a refusal to confirm whether or not it would come to Taiwan’s aid in the event of hostilities. Minihan’s memo raised the suggestion that some in the US military were acting on an unambiguous assumption – or understanding – that it would.
The impact of comments such as those of Minihan, Davidson and Gilday goes beyond US credibility. Such pronouncements often draw hostile reaction from Beijing, and cause confusion and fear among the public in China and Taiwan.On Wednesday and Thursday, the CCP’s military sent more than 60 warplanes and ships into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, but it was not clear whether this larger than usual incursion was in retaliation to Minihan or another perceived provocation.
Taiwan’s government is urgently working to fix entrenched issues with its own military and foster urgency in a population that has lived with the China threat for decades. Conscription for young men was recently increased to a full year of training and service, and the voluntary reserve service is being expanded to include women.
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