The problem with finding 'patient zero' — and why outbreaks are more complicated than you think

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The media loves a detective story, but tracking down 'patient zero' is just one part of pandemic control.

In popular culture, patient zero is often used to refer to the first case in a particular region, or the first case that's come to the attention of health authorities."Sometimes the first case that's notified to us is not the first case in an outbreak," Victoria's Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said last month.

In the early days of an outbreak, it's still possible to catch embers of disease before they become full-blown fires, says Raina Macintyre, head of biosecurity at UNSW's Kirby Institute. But even after those critical first days or weeks, tracing cases back to patient zero can still give us useful insights into how disease spreads.

 

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Hope Brendan Murphy reads this.

So either it is important to find Patient Zero (Australia stance on China) or it is not (Australia stance on Victoria outbreak), simply down to Political MSM messaging.

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