Hospitalisations are at record levels in Victoria as Delta’s peaks have been overtaken by Omicron.
Recent daily case numbers have a second complication: the overall total now comes from two separate sources. Indeed, Victoria and NSW daily case numbers have started to drop. But given the complexities of accurately interpreting daily case numbers, is the data a true indication that case numbers are on their way down?
Deakin University epidemiology chair Catherine Bennett said COVID screening programs and increased access to rapid tests are likely to lead to an increased number of cases recorded at schools and workplaces as people return from summer holidays. You can see how the peak in hospitalisations tends to come after case numbers peak in these graphs from previous outbreaks. During Victoria’s second wave of infections in 2020, the seven-day average reached a maximum of just over 500 cases per day on August 5, but the total number of people in hospital at a given time peaked at 675 exactly two weeks later, on August 19.
But importantly, he said, Omicron appeared to have a shorter time frame from infection to symptom onset, which he suspected meant those needing hospitalisation would be admitted sooner than previous waves. Here is how hospitalisations have been tracking against case numbers in Victoria since the start of the Omicron wave:
According to the latest health data, the median age of COVID-19 patients in Melbourne hospitals in January was 62, and 67 for regional hospitals. However, as you can see from this graph of the total number of people in intensive care because of the virus in Victoria over time, the number of people in intensive care on a given day has been rising.
But the graph above is more complex than it may appear at first glance. During the state’s second wave of infections in 2020, 41 deaths were confirmed on August 31 and 59 on September 4, but these single-day totals includedProfessor Esterman said daily death numbers tended to start decreasing about two weeks after daily case numbers started to drop. That would mean about one week from now.
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