Terrifying odds on White Island recovery

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At first light this morning, New Zealand police will face terrifying odds to touch down on the volcanic White Island and recover six bodies before nature takes over.

Geological monitoring agency GeoNet has warned there is a 50 to 60 per cent risk of a further volcanic eruption taking place on Friday – up from a 40-60 per cent chance on Wednesday.

Level two signals “moderate to heightened volcanic unrest” if five is a full scale major volcanic eruption and zero is no volcanic unrest. “There is still a medium likelihood of eruptive activity in the next 24 hours … There is an extremely low likelihood of any potential ash affecting the mainland, but people may smell gas, depending on the prevailing wind direction,” he said.

Rain mixing with the heavy volcanic ash lying on the island could encase the bodies in a cement-like substance, making recovery more difficult,“My concerns remain the weather, the direction of the wind, the sea state because they all bring risk and add complexity,” New Zealand Police Deputy Commissioner Mike Clement said.we have a plan, the resources and the capability to the recover the bodies“The plan is contingent on a number of risk factors which will be assessed at the time.

 

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