Stuck ships and supply chain inflation

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Global supply chains don’t have as much slack as they did, say, last summer, after pandemic disruptions were mostly a thing of the past, because Baltimore isn’t the only problem.

It has been a week since the container ship Dali struck the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore. It’s still stuck there, and the images continue to amaze, in part because the vessel is so huge compared with what’s left of the bridge. How could planners not have realised that operating superships in the harbour’s confined waters posed a risk?

It’s less important now: pre-Dali, Baltimore was only the 17th busiest US port, and there’s apparently enough spare capacity that most of the cargoes that would normally have passed through Baltimore can be diverted to other east coast ports. The Dali is no Ever Given, the ship that blocked the Suez Canal when it ran aground in 2021.

I think it’s fair to say that a great majority of economists were caught flat-footed one way or another by inflation developments over the past three years. Along with many others, I failed to predict the big initial run-up in inflation.

In retrospect, that analysis looks spot on, since pretty much the same thing seems to have happened in the latest inflation cycle.

 

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