Sting in tail of departing La Nina climate driver

“Ten years ago, in 2011, was a very strong La Nina. But this La Nina was very middle of the road, it wasn’t super weak or super strong.”Today the NSW Rural Fire Service said it had been the quietest bushfire season since the strong La Nina year of 2010/11.

One of the factors that may have turbocharged this year’s relatively moderate La Nina was rising sea surface temperatures, often cited as a symptom of climate change.“A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour and scientists calculate that this can increase moisture in the atmosphere by approximately 7 per cent per degree of global warming,” said Dr Gallant.

La Ninas occur when water cools in the equatorial Pacific and winds push warmer waters towards Australia. Picture: BOM.The BOM said the ENSO was now likely to remain in neutral until at least the end of winter. Neutral often means fairly average conditions across eastern Australia.That is the Madden-Julian Oscillation .

The Madden-Julian Oscillation during a monsoon pulse – which is happening now – can lead to more rain over northern Australia and possibly further south too. Picture: BOM.Indeed, a tropical cyclone is a possibility over the coming days in the Indian Ocean close to north western Western Australia. “There is a higher likelihood of having back-to-back La Ninas than a transition from a La Nina to an El Nino,” Monash University climate scientist Dr Shayne McGregor told news.com.au.

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