In interviews with nearly 2000 voters who previously took New York Times/Siena College surveys, President Joe Biden appeared to gain slightly in the aftermath of Trump’s conviction last week for falsifying business records.
Overall, Trump retains 93 per cent of voters who told us they backed him in a previous survey – a tally that’s yet another striking show of political resilience from a candidate who is facing three more sets of criminal indictments. With five months to go until the election, there’s still plenty of time for Trump to regain his standing. The verdict is still fresh in the minds of voters, and shifts in public opinion following a major news event can prove fleeting. The study offers no reason to assume that Trump has lost these voters for good, and many still haven’t made up their minds about the verdict.
Contacting previous respondents may be an excellent way to track how people’s views change over time, but it’s not necessarily the best way to represent the whole electorate. On the one hand, Biden’s supporters were slightly likelier to retake the survey than those who backed Trump, 37 per cent to 35 per cent. The voters we reached again were generally older, more educated, more highly engaged and more likely to be white than those who did not respond.
But the slight movement overall towards Biden is broadly in line with other recent surveys. In a Reuters/Ipsos survey taken immediately after the verdict, 10 per cent of Republicans said Trump’s conviction made them less likely to support him in the November.
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