The calculation is as pragmatic as it is cynical. It assumes that Labor cannot bridge the fault lines between the regions and the cities, and between the frontier states of Queensland and Western Australia and the cosmopolitan heartlands of NSW and Victoria.In this reading, voters will stick with an incumbent who has no real agenda beyond re-election because they are disengaged, and fearful of change. A passive status quo for a passive people.
That would put Australia back to the future with a minority Labor government. While Labor’s target list extends to seats in regional Queensland and NSW, the path to victory begins on its side of the fault line, in the cities. Labor requires a net gain of seven seats to form majority government, and up to four to have the most number of seats in the event of a hung parliament. The latter calculation depends on whether independents add to their existing tally of five at the expense of the Coalition. Labor believes that the Liberals may lose both Wentworth, in Sydney’s wealthy east, and Goldstein in the Melbourne’s bayside south-east, to independents.
Yet, Labor has only lost one state election in Queensland since 1996, and has also won four of the past six in WA. The lesson here for Albanese is he must fight the election on Labor terms, with a premier-like focus on service delivery. Morrison will try to keep the debate in the clear areas of federal responsibility – the economy and national security.
the South Australian Liberal government of Steven Marshall was defeated in a landslide after just one term in office.
The 'handsome-ising' of both candidates is deeply offenive :(
NOTHING SHOULD SAVE THIS GOVT. The LNPs should be consigned to history until they learn the meaning of the word LIBERAL- look it up in the dictionary. They should also learn they are not elected to curry favour with the bigger powers, but to take care of their own people first.
The deep divisions between rural and urban is unlikely to break the Labor Party. It never had a genuine regional consciousness. But it might be the coalitions undoing if Independent 'Voices' candidates break into previously 'nowhere to go but the Nationals' electorates.
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