Economists have been confounded by an apparent plunge in retail sales in December, leading rates traders to lower their expectations for the level at which the Reserve Bank cash rate will peak and also reducing the probability of back-to-back tightening in February and March.
Meanwhile, interbank futures are fully positioned for a 0.25 percentage point RBA rate rise to 3.35 per cent at the central bank’s first policy meeting of the year on February 7,. This was previously expected in March. The result will be welcomed by the RBA, which is counting on a slowdown in consumer spending to bring inflation lower. Australian inflation rocketed to a near 33-year high in the December quarter, with the headline consumer price index increasing at a rate of 7.8 per cent.On Monday, Deutsche Bank sharply upgraded its forecast for the peak in the RBA cash rate to 4.1 per cent, from 3.35 per cent as previously expected, saying the central bank needed to go harder.
“Today’s report may cause the RBA’s finger to waver a little longer over the interest-rate trigger next week but, ultimately, I still think it will pull,” said David Bassanese, chief economist at Betashares. He believes the RBA will want to see a run of soft consumer spending numbers before it can be convinced that households are pulling in their reins as against shifting from one month to the next.
Has it occurred to the statisticians the reason retail sales dropped is because the ACTUAL population had decreased - Died - or are far too ill to be barely buy basics? I bet no-one`s given the ACTUAL people a thought
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