Patience is vital tactic in Ukraine’s hopes of turning tide against Russia

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Analysis: Kyiv says it is raising a million-strong army but it will need to carefully plan its counterattack

But however impressive sounding the claims were, it is hard to believeis yet capable of an effective counteroffensive, even if the much-vaunted US Himars and the British M270 rocket artillery, with their range of 70km to 80km, have begun to arrive and are being put to good use. A turning of the military tide, if it happens at all, will most likely take time.

Add in wounded at 300 or 400 a day, and casualties could amount to about 15,000 a month – perhaps 35,000 to 45,000 in total. A further 7,200 Ukrainian soldiers have gone missing since the start of the war, the country estimated on Monday. Many of these losses will have come from Ukraine’s most experienced forces.Britain has begun training Ukrainian recruits

Such military training is clearly critical for the Ukrainians, but a successful counteroffensive will require more: a strategic use of a combination of arms, an ability to concentrate force on the chosen battlefield of at least three to one or ideally more and advanced western weapons.Ukraine has lobbied heavily for Nato standard munitions as it gradually runs out of its traditional Soviet-standard supply.

Ukraine will hope that by striking deeper behind enemy lines, the rocket artillery will disrupt Moscow’s ability to continue its grinding offensive in Donbas.

 

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