Now is not the time to do anything more to slow the economy – it’s already in danger of stalling

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The Sahm rule lets us get in front of recessions – so alerts should be flashing in the Treasury and RBA

Now is not the time to do anything more to slow the economy – it’s already in danger of stalling

Did anyone think that the 1990s recession only began in 1991 when the June quarter that year showed GDP had fallen 0.2% off the back of a fall of 1.3% in the March quarter? I doubt it. More likely everyone twigged rather earlier, given in 1990 the unemployment rate went from 6.1% to 8%. The 1990s recession, for example, was much worse here, while there’s a reason we call it the GFC and in the US it is the Great Recession.

In effect the RBA is arguing we will not go into a recession despite forecasting rises in unemployment that have led to a recession.

Source: Financial Digest (financialdigest.net)

 

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