New swine fever strains wipe out up to 8m pigs in China in two months
A devastating second wave of the deadly disease that claimed the lives of tens of millions of pigs last year appears to have rendered China's plan to rebuild its herd 'simply impossible'.
In his articleWhy I Don't Trust Chinese Data on the Pig Herd Rebuild, analyst Andrew Whitelaw said elevated pig prices were not the only problem.He said China's imports of meat – "which would have reduced if the herd was back to normal levels" – were also on the rise.
"When imports start declining rapidly, then that will point towards an effective rebuild," Mr Whitelaw said.Mr Whitelaw said one of the biggest drivers of meat pricing in the past couple of years was the impact of African swine fever.He estimated that pig deaths in China last year created a protein gap of approximately 25 million tonnes.
China has been building multi-level "pig hotels" facilities in an effort to protect against disease.()Damage spreadsMr Quilty said there were three known strains of African swine fever, two of which were understood to have emerged from illegal vaccines, and that there were no signs of countries being able slow the spread. headtopics.com
He said China's push towards building super complexes – or so-called pig hotels – was also understood to have been impacted.Download the ABC News app for all the latest.The ramifications for global meat prices would be significant, Mr Quilty said.
"There's no doubt that meat prices will go higher, be it pork, beef or chicken," he said."This second wave will put China's [pig herd] rebuild many years behind and so ongoing high prices, I think, are here to stay for at least two to three years."
Mr Quilty said the situation would have broader impacts."Also, I think we've seen this enormous jump in global corn and cereal prices — but with this recent collapse in the herd, the net effect is there will be an easing on demand," he said.
"You just can't take seven to eight million sows out of the system and not have an impact on cereal demand." Read more: ABC News »
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And we only have to rid ourselves of 70 odd Well they will build massive pig 'factories', no free-stalls and sanitary conditions for these pigs. Hopefully it will wipe out more than a few in the Australian government. AuspolSoCorrupt Great News for US. FreeHongKong Trade war you said? Don't give them our bacon easily. Make them buy at unreasonable price.
Nothing new about it. Unaddressed swine fever for 10+ years. Swine fever has been causing so much hardship in that very pig dependent country. Wonder if a pig shortage could bring down that dictator sooner than a piggish western leader eg Trump. Which is why a big nation especially , must never use trade threats against another. When mother nature strikes and causes world wide food shortages ,her 1.3 bil will have to look for food elsewhere to survive . No matter how wealthy, no one can challenge climate,virus, crickets
You watch. It will now mysteriously turn up in other countries. Might give Australian Pork, Bacon producers a chance... Fancy that, a new disease in China! That is unheard of...🙄