NDIS: Bill Shorten’s spending claims can’t be trusted

Already a subscriber?One of the biggest cost blowouts in the federal budget last week was, again, the National Disability Insurance Scheme.

NDIS Minister Bill Shorten was heralding a $14.4 billion NDIS saving as Labor’s biggest avoided expenditure in the budget. Confused?spending, due to more enrolments from children with autism and developmental delays, plus high inflation for NDIS participant plans. Incredibly, some 12 per cent of boys aged 5-7 are on the NDIS.

The cost of the NDIS is forecast to ratchet up significantly – from $30 billion in 2021-22 to $44 billion in the current 2023-24, to $61 billion by 2027-28. “Taken together, payments related to the NDIS are expected to increase by $1.5 billion over five years from 2023-24 to 2027-28 and will ensure the NDIS remains on track to achieve the NDIS Sustainability Framework agreed by National Cabinet from 1 July 2026.”Perhaps it is just a coincidence Labor has managed to find future forecast savings to offset the actuary’s projected cost increase.

said the Coalition’s cost blowout warnings had the credibility of claims there were weapons of mass destruction in IraqBack then, the NDIS was forecast to cost “only” about $24 billion but was projected to keep rising. Three years later, the government actuary is warning it could blow out to $125 billion by 2034.

Total federal government spending as a share of the economy is on track to hit 26.6 per cent in 2025-26, the highest since the mid-1980s excluding the pandemic.

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