Kakhovka dam collapse unlikely to hurt Ukraine counteroffensive but will have long-term impact

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Catastrophe is also likely to fuel concerns about Moscow’s brinkmanship, if suspicions that Russia blew up the dam are proved

“A Ukrainian cross-river operation in southern Kherson, below the dam, was always a risky and therefore low-probability prospect.”

“Although I am sure Kyiv had considered the possibility of the dam being destroyed, [as] Russia had threatened it in the autumn of 2022, the reality is likely to be a distraction.” And although the city of Kherson is still being shelled, including in places where evacuations were being organised on Thursday, the flood waters have forced the retreat of some artillery units that had been attacking the city.

 

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