Jump in unemployment ‘final nail in the coffin’ for another rate rise

The Reserve Bank may have to abandon any plans for further interest rate increases after figures showed the largest monthly fall in jobs since the COVID-19 pandemic and big jumps in unemployment in the key states of NSW and Queensland.noted the jobs market was at a “turning point”, Australian Bureau of Statistics data showed a 0.2 percentage point lift in the unemployment rate to 3.7 per cent in July.

The figures also suggest employers are squeezing more work out of their staff. Hours worked increased another 0.2 per cent after a 0.4 per cent increase in June. Over the past year, hours worked have jumped by 5.2 per cent.The RBA, which is forecasting the jobless rate to climb as the economy slows, has held official interest rates at 4.1 per cent over the past two months.

“Today’s jobs data is in line with Reserve Bank forecasts that unemployment will reach 3.9 per cent by the end of the year,” she said. “Today’s data are likely to be the final nail in the coffin for any lingering expectations of a rate hike in September,” he said. But over that period, inflation increased by 5.5 per cent based on the bureau’s monthly measure of inflation.In the six months to May, average wages climbed by 1.7 per cent. In the six months before that, they were up by 2.1 per cent, suggesting a slowdown in wage growth.

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