Reserve Bank of Australia governor Michele Bullock is noticing price pain at the petrol pump. Millions of motorists are feeling it in their hip pockets, too.and other everyday household items could have implications for expectations of inflation and, potentially, the RBA’s interest rate decisions.
Vanguard senior economist Alexis Gray says inflation expectations change people’s behaviour, by bringing forward demand for products before anticipated price rises and pushing up prices further. High oil prices tend to slow global economic growth, a likelihood Bullock flagged this week. Expensive fuel is effectively a tax on consumers and reduces their spending for other goods and services. These forces can be deflationary, at least for some sectors of the economy.
Inflation expectations are 20 per cent to 40 per cent larger due to the frequency of purchases, compared to the weighted prices of goods and services measured in the official US consumer price index basket.Separately, research published by the American Economic Association finds that oil prices after the 2008 global financial crisis influenced household inflation expectations.
The RBA is determined to “anchor” inflation expectations to avoid inflation becoming self-fulfilling.
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