There are all sorts of reasons for this failure – the pandemic being just one of many – but by any stretch, having inflation in the band for just 10 per cent of the past decade is pretty poor form.
Some of its core beliefs were shredded in the pre-pandemic era as it sought to lift inflation to its target. There is now a danger more of those core beliefs could be challenged as it seeks to bring inflation down. On the trend measure, unemployment remained at 3.9 per cent where it has been since November. Despite the RBA’s tightening of monetary policy, the trend jobless rate has climbed by just 0.3 of a percentage point over the past 12 months.Yet, and this is the issue that has to be playing on the mind of the Reserve Bank, the inflation rate has fallen.Remember, inflation was at 7 per cent in March last year.
The reports coming in from charities and social care organisations show there is real pain being felt by a large proportion of the population. Insolvency numbers and the gradual, but steady, increase in the number of people falling behind on their mortgages or car loans also point to the economy struggling.The RBA’s poor inflation track record was partly due to its belief that its economic models continue to work properly.
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