Federal election likely to be won and lost in Victoria

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The birthplace of the modern Liberal party looks set to become ground zero for its electoral demise. |OPINION

For the first time in more than two decades Victoria is shaping up as the key battleground for the May federal election.

In 2019 there are at least five and up to 11 seats in Victoria that could fall Labor's way. That alone is enough to deliver the keys to The Lodge to Bill Shorten. Here’s where it gets most worrying for the Victorian Liberals. The geographical areas covered by these seats recorded some of the biggest swings to Labor in the November state election.The state seat of Nepean overlaps with the federal seat of Flinders and swung by 8.5 per cent; the state seat of Ringwood overlapping with Deakin swung by 8 per cent; while Eltham, which now overlaps with Menzies, swung by 8.6 per cent.

Of course, federal elections are different to state elections. Only problem is, Labor campaigned on public resentment towards the federal Liberals in the November state election, with advertising featuring Scott Morrison, Peter Dutton and Tony Abbott. Now Victorian voters are going to get their chance to vote on the federal Coalition government for real.

If the Liberals want to win federal government again they will need to win back Victoria and that requires them to obsess less about the Sydney shock-jocks and blow-hards from the tropics.

 

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