Already a subscriber?China will fail to meet its growth target unless Beijing injects more stimulus to prop up the country’s stuttering recovery, but a reliance on iron ore exports from Australia will limit the effect that weakness has on the local economy., who forecast the world’s second-largest economy and Australia’s largest trading partner will grow between 4.2 per cent and 4.8 per cent this year.
“We do worry about the risks of slower global growth, including China. The key risk is for Australia’s exports – both services and commodities,” said the National Australia Bank’s Gareth Spence, who predicts growth of 4.5 per cent this year.
“While volumes of commodities demand is important, the price is arguably more important, so commodity prices are needed to hold up to support Australian exports,” said Ms Mousina. Still, iron ore prices have been lower – they fell “Chinese steel production stabilised at around a billion tonnes a year at the beginning of this decade, generating high and stable demand for iron ore,” said Morgan Financial’s Michael Knox. Nevertheless, Mr Knox was among the most pessimistic of the economists surveyed, forecasting China’s economy to slow to 4.2 per cent this year.
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