Deal or no deal: What Trump 2.0 could mean for our nuclear submarines

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Donald Trump is known for scrapping international partnerships as president. Experts say the AUKUS defence pact appeals to the volatile dealmaker, but he may try to squeeze more cash out of Australia.

Add articles to your saved list and come back to them any time.When Donald Trump came to power in 2017, he moved swiftly to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate accord, the Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership and the nuclear deal with Iran. Trump seemed to delight in tearing up the policies of his predecessor Barack Obama and challenging the conventional wisdom of the Washington foreign policy establishment.

“Trump will be very inclined to scrap anything Biden puts his name to, and he will be asking, ‘What’s in this for America, and what is Australia giving us?’ A Trump administration would make an already risky deal even more risky.”The strategic rationale that gave birth to the defence pact is clear, even if it is rarely stated publicly by the leaders of the three nations: to deter China’s assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.

“Trump wants allies to spend more, do more, make themselves more capable,” says Peter Dean, head of defence and foreign policy at the United States Studies Centre. “That’s what AUKUS is all about. It ticks all of Trump’s boxes.” The first indication of how he may feel came after he met former prime minister Scott Morrison, who spearheaded the creation of AUKUS, in June. Morrison reported that Trump gave the pact a “warm reception” during their meeting.

White believes Trump could easily say, “‘If Biden asked for US$3 billion , I will ask for $6 billion .’ He will try to negotiate the deal.” Rudd has been working overtime on his contacts in Washington, including potential key figures in a second Trump administration. These include Trump’s former secretary of state Mike Pompeo and former national security adviser Robert O’Brien, both of whom could return to senior roles in a future administration and have praised the AUKUS pact.

 

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