Chalmers’ second surplus all but assured

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Treasurer Jim Chalmers is all but assured of delivering back-to-back surpluses, with new figures showing thumping revenue flows and tightened federal purse strings are set to keep the budget in the black.

While it is expected the budget will remain in surplus, welfare recipients holding out for relief are set to be disappointed.

“This update shows that while a second surplus is not locked in, it’s within reach,” Dr Chalmers said on Friday. Weeks out from the budget, scheduled for May 14, a string of firmer-than-expected economic data, including fresh inflation and jobs numbers, has added to concerns that the Reserve Bank may have to resume its monetary tightening or at the very least delay rate cuts well into 2025.

“Given the material upside surprise in the CPI figures, we think there’s a solid case for the Bank to flip the switch and resume its tightening cycle,” he said. The release of the finance figures coincided with renewed calls for increases to rent assistance, unemployment payments and childcare subsidies from the government’s own hand-picked economic inclusion advisory committee.

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