, released in early December, seems to me to be written with this precise risk firmly front of mind. The review has a simple message: don’t get bogged down, don’t assume the next election is in the bag and don’t get complacent.
But it urges the Albanese government to keep looking outwards. While there has been significant focus post-election on the consequences of the Liberal party’s rout in its progressive heartland, the Labor party needs to be similarly worried about a rumble in its own base. The campaign review catalogues the structural weaknesses sitting underneath the May victory. The main one is the ongoing drift of the blue-collar occupational base to political actors other than Labor.
This is not a new phenomenon. During the Howard era, and in 2013 at the height of “Tony’s tradies”, a big chunk of blue-collar voters defected to the Coalition. In 2022, this disaffected once-were-Labor cohort sprayed their votes everywhere, including to populist rightwing candidates intent on harvesting pandemic alienation.
Hello? Labor has already lost such support across all electorates by not keeping faith with its impoverished voters that it's difficult to see it being re-elected, no matter what 'promises' it keeps.
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