BlackRock warns against dip buying as high-volatility era dawns

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A new world of “heightened macro volatility and higher risk premia for both bonds and equities” has begun, according to BlackRock strategists.

There’s no quick recovery in sight for stocks and bonds that are having their worst year in at least three decades, according to strategists at BlackRock.

BlackRock remains bearish on government bonds on both a strategic and tactical basis and is underweight long-dated government debt, including US Treasuries.“We are braving a new world of heightened macro volatility and higher risk premia for both bonds and equities,” strategists including Wei Li, Vivek Paul and Scott Thiel wrote in a mid-year report by BlackRock Investment Institute, the asset manager’s research arm.

The world’s largest asset manager retains its long-term bullish view on equities, but has gone underweight developed-market stocks in the near term as the risk of stalling growth rises. Investors should bet on credit instead, because valuations have improved and default risk is contained, the strategists said.Despite the surge in yields, BlackRock remains bearish on government bonds on both a strategic and tactical basis and is underweight long-dated government debt, including US Treasuries.

“The pullback in euro area breakeven rates since May suggested markets are underappreciating the inflationary pressures from the energy shock,” the strategists wrote in their predictions for the next six to 12 months. “UK gilts are our preferred nominal bonds. We believe market pricing of the Bank of England’s rate hike is unrealistically hawkish in light of deteriorating growth.

 

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