Risk assets including stocks and the commodity-linked Australian dollar extended their new year rally on Tuesday, as optimism about China’s economy and a less hawkish US Federal Reserve boost sentiment.
“I believe there will be more upside than downside for the Australian dollar,” Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at CBA said. Mr Capurso referred to US dollar weakness as a major force supporting appetite for risk assets. Interbank futures imply about an 80 per cent probability of such a rise, and a 20 per cent chance it will stay on hold. The cash rate is expected to top 3.6 per cent, stay there for a while before starting to drop.
“Inflation will come down more slowly than most anticipate because the combination of rising wages and energy prices are underestimated,” he said. “I have not seen any evidence of wages turning around.”Australian employment unexpectedly dipped in December, but the jobless rate stayed near five-decade lows.Meanwhile, data on Tuesday showed little sign of a cooling in the red-hot labour market.
“The biggest issue is that inflation doesn’t come down quickly enough for the RBA and they’ll have to keep tightening,” Mr Hogan said.
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